Week in Review: AI Debt Fears Push the Nasdaq to Its Worst Week Since June as the Fear Gauge Hits “Extreme Fear”

Fear vs greed

Where sentiment sits heading into the week

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Tech and semiconductors

Chips, AI buildout, supply chain

• Nvidia's $150 billion stock buyback, announced in late September, still stands, lifting its total buyback authorization to $235 billion. The largest buyback authorization increase on record underscores how much cash the AI leader is generating even amid the sector's selloff. No new update this week.
• Nvidia (NVDA) was one of the few AI-linked names to hold up this week, little changed while CoreWeave and Nebius tumbled double digits. A reminder the financing scare is hitting highly leveraged "neocloud" operators hardest, not every company tied to AI.

Quiet medical breakthroughs

Progress from companies you have not heard of

• Definium Therapeutics, a small, privately held drug developer with no major name recognition, won FDA Breakthrough Therapy designation this month for DT120 ODT, a candidate for major depressive disorder. Breakthrough status speeds up the FDA's review process for drugs that show real promise against serious conditions; SEC filing records tie the company to the ticker DFTX.
• The FDA has a decision due today, Saturday, October 17, on Viatris's eye drops for presbyopia (the age-related loss of close-up focus); no outcome was confirmed as this edition was written. A goal date set under the agency's user-fee program; approval would add a drop-based alternative to reading glasses.
• GSK's bepirovirsen, an antisense drug originally discovered by Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and licensed to GSK, has an FDA decision due October 26 for chronic hepatitis B. It carries Priority Review and Breakthrough Therapy status; Ionis stands to collect milestone payments and royalties if it is approved, even though GSK holds the filing.
• Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR) is still trading on its late-September Phase 3 data for deramiocel, its Duchenne muscular dystrophy cell therapy, with an FDA decision due November 22. That data remains the clearest signal ahead of the call; nothing new on it broke this week.
• Rapport Therapeutics still expects Phase 2 data this month for a bipolar-mania drug candidate. No specific date has been confirmed; the trial was expanded partway through, so a strong result could also stand as confirmatory evidence toward an eventual approval filing.

Small companies, big partners

Deals overlooked because the small name is the one signing

• Hertha Metals, a privately held startup with no public ticker, broke ground this week on a Texas rare-earth-free magnet plant backed by both the Pentagon and Toyota. See the Policy section below for the wider federal push behind it; quiet otherwise for new small-giant pairings.
• Ginkgo Bioworks (DNA) shares remain roughly double where they traded before its September 15 Eli Lilly artificial-intelligence drug discovery partnership. No new update to the deal this week; the stock's move has been a slow grind rather than a fresh catalyst, a reminder that a deal with a giant can re-rate a small company's stock far more than it moves the giant.

Boring companies, big things

Industrials, utilities, insurance, logistics

• Quiet week for new deal news. Aon's $17 billion purchase of USI Insurance Services can still close as soon as October 19, just after this week. The companies are still targeting a fourth-quarter 2026 close for what remains the largest insurance brokerage deal on record.
• The largest rail merger in US history remains before regulators, with nothing scheduled this week. The Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger application is still moving through the Surface Transportation Board, with a 2027 close expected.

White House and policy

What the administration is pushing, and who it touches

• Oil climbed sharply this week (WTI up roughly 10%, Brent touching near $110 a barrel) on Houthi strikes near Saudi Arabia and reported tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz. Independent trackers put commercial shipping through the strait at roughly 10% of pre-crisis levels; Iran's government has called the US response to its reopening proposal "inadequate."
• The Pentagon's rare-earth-free magnet push kept widening, with Hertha Metals breaking ground on a Texas plant backed by the Pentagon and Toyota, alongside existing bets on MP Materials and Niron Magnetics. The push aims to cut US dependence on Chinese-made magnets ahead of a 2027 defense-procurement deadline; see Partners, above.
• Trump's threat of tariffs of 150% to 300% on foreign companies selling into the US unless they commit to building American factories within about 18 months still stands. No new escalation confirmed this week; it keeps manufacturers and importers guessing about committing capital to US plants.
• The administration's most-favored-nation drug pricing push still covers 26 manufacturers representing about 89% of the branded US drug market. Each signer gets a multi-year tariff exemption on its drugs and agrees to price at the level of comparable wealthy nations; no new signing confirmed this week.

Economic data

What moved this week, and what's next

• Tuesday: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup opened earnings season with a split verdict, trading desks strong, ordinary lending softer. Sets the pattern the week's other bank reports followed.
• Wednesday: September CPI (consumer price index, a measure of how much prices rose for everyday goods and services) ran hot, up 3.7% year over year on the headline and 2.6% on the core reading, both above forecast. A hot print revives the case for another Fed rate hike; Bank of America missed estimates and Morgan Stanley beat the same day.
• Thursday: September PPI (producer price index, wholesale-level inflation) and retail sales were released as scheduled; this edition could not confirm the actual figures. Taiwan Semiconductor also beat and raised its outlook the same day; see Tech and semiconductors.
• Friday: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at an IMF event in Bangkok and declined to signal the Fed's next move, defending September's rate hike but giving no preview of the October 27-28 decision. Traders now price roughly 15% odds of an October hike, down from about 45% right after Wednesday's hot CPI print; treat that figure as a moving target.
• The Fed's next rate decision lands Wednesday, October 28, at its October 27-28 meeting. This week's hot CPI print and Friday's noncommittal remarks from Warsh are now the clearest inputs left before the call.